Will a Black Swan Phenomenon Reshape Our World?

Was the pandemic a classical example of Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan” phenomenon? Looking back over the past few years, it certainly fits the bill. It caught us off guard and disrupted our lives, our businesses and our economies. So as we restore ourselves and our institutions, we need ample introspection  on what has just happened to us, in order to process its many valuable learnings.

What the pandemic has done is shown us the fragility of humanity and the lack of coordination between governments, institutions and sectors. It also showed us how one thing, one seemingly simple isolated episode, can cut across and unhinge all facets of our lives, across business, healthcare, technology, retail, education, hospitality, entertainment, transportation etc.

The insidious nature of the pandemic was its stealth… it was not as visible us as Sars or Ebola. Because it was argely asymptomatic,  those with mild symptoms to go about their lives and spread contagion. Does that mean that there are many other threats around us that we don’t have the capacity to see?

What have we learned from it? How are businesses responding?  What are the effects long-term effects of the business disruption we faced? Are we now building more resilient infrastructures? And how about other things, like the way we work – will remote, or hybrid work, remain with us? Are we taking the necessary contingencies to avoid future business disruption? Do we really have a handle on our security? Can all of this teach us something about how we handle future crises? The exponential impact of the pandemic will no doubt be felt over a longtime. We should now be in a state of not only building back – but building back much stronger.

Historically speaking, disruptive times have always sown the seeds of change. The slew of challenges that we faced over the last few years necessitated paradigm shifting solutions that are shaping the world of today.  The hope, however, is that we are able to elevate these experiences to design more compassionate, more humane, more inclusive, and more sustainable institutions and policies to help build a better world.

One  way of looking at all of this, is that this may have been the perfect storm for disruptive and transformational thinking to take place. We experienced an isolation that catalyzed new technologies, we hunkered down deep to process the changes. Perhaps we should commit to truly reimagining and reconfiguring new solutions to take humanity forward.

This is a good time for us to build hope and purpose in our lives…to refocus and realign priorities. This is a great time for leaders to stand up and reset the moral compass.

By Tamakkan Braintrust